Print media: is it dying?

Last night I had the opportunity to hear A-list blogger Robert Scoble speak here at SJSU. Although I'm quite new to the blog world, I found what he had to say fascinating. Did you know that every time you link to someone else's blog, they know about it and can go back and read your blog? It's a little intimidating to think that Scoble could be reading my blog right now. Although I'm sure he has more pressing things to do...

Anyway, the topic brought up in class was the evolution of the publishing world, and whether or not the books we have now and plan to pass on to our grandchildren will become so obsolete we will end up discarding them. Lilly used the analogy of the music industry, in which CD's have replaced vinyl albums. Fewer and fewer people still maintain a vinyl collection or own a record player anymore. So what's to stop books from going the same route when electronic media alternatives are perfected?

(One of the books I'm saving for my grandchildren)

I, for one, don't think the music situation is a good analogy. The enjoyment of music is a relatively passive activity which relies on a person's sense of sound. The movement from vinyl to CD did not so much affect the sound produced as the physical medium that contained that sound.

Books are a different matter, however. Unlike vinyl records, they don't need a device to "read" them, which means that anyone could pick up a book 50 years from now and still be able to use it. Also, the experience of reading a print book is an active one, which requires that you hold the book in your hand and physically turn the pages. We, as print readers, are accustomed to the look and feel of traditional books. Which is not to say that we can't adapt to new forms of books, only that it will be harder as the experience is so different. In reality, I think ebooks could really take off, especially if they become more interactive. Perhaps like DVD's, they could have "bonus features." Still, I think most people will be holding onto their print books for a long time.

So what about other forms of print media? Last night Scoble told us that he would be surprised if any of us ended up with a career in print journalism. My first impression was to be a little shocked by this comment. Did he really think that paper media industry was sinking that fast? As I started to think about it, however, I realized he's probably right. The overhead for printing on paper is growing. Meanwhile, it's becoming easier and easier to publish online, where there's no inherent length restrictions for text, and the overhead is practically zilch. The future of news media is online.